S.A. Farma, B.T. Sukmana
This study presents a forecasting analysis of Forest Carbon Stocks (FCS) in ASEAN countries for the period 2021-2030 using time series modeling. Employing both manual and automatic ARIMA approaches, the research aims to assess future trends and evaluate the effectiveness of each model in capturing carbon stock dynamics. The projection reveals an overall declining trend in FCS across most ASEAN nations. Cambodia exhibits the steepest decline (-17.71%), followed by Singapore (-12.81%) and Myanmar (-8.12%). Indonesia, while maintaining the highest carbon stock in the region, shows a moderate reduction (-4.90%). Smaller decreases are observed in Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Timor Leste. In contrast, Vietnam (+5.99%) and Brunei Darussalam (+0.02%) demonstrate slight positive growth. Comparative analysis shows that Auto ARIMA performs better in six out of eleven countries, highlighting its superior flexibility in fitting diverse national patterns. This suggests Auto ARIMA as a promising tool for future forest monitoring efforts. The study's results emphasize the urgency of reinforcing forest governance and regional collaboration to mitigate carbon loss and strengthen climate resilience across Southeast Asia. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.
Department of Biology, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Universitas Negeri Padang, Padang, Prof. Dr. Hamka Street, Air Tawar Barat,West Sumatera, Padang, 25132, Indonesia; Center Research of Recycling and Organic Waste Management, Universitas Negeri Padang, Prof. Dr. Hamka Street, Air Tawar Barat, Padang, West Sumatera, Padang, 25132, Indonesia; Computer Science Department, BINUS Graduate Program - Master of Computer Science, Bina Nusantara University, Jakarta, 11480, Indonesia
