Cahyo Aji Hapsoro, Syakira Ghina Maulina, Mochamad Khoirul Rifai, Pakhrur Razi, Marzuki
Forest fires pose a significant threat to ecological sustainability, human health, and economic stability, especially in fire-prone regions like South Sumatra, Indonesia. Peatland areas are particularly vulnerable due to their unique ecological characteristics and human-induced disturbances. The objective of this study is to map, analyze, and investigate forest fire risk and fire spread in peatlands within South Sumatra, Indonesia, from 2014 to 2023 using Remote Sensing and GIS technologies. Key geomorphological, environmental, and human activity parameters were assessed, including slope, elevation, temperature, distance to roads, and land cover. Each parameter was classified into five fire hazard levels, and a comprehensive forest fire risk map was generated using an overlay approach via the intersect method in ArcGIS. The analysis revealed that 74% of South Sumatra’s area is classified as having high to very high fire risk, with peatlands being the most vulnerable regions due to their low elevation, gentle slopes, moderate to high temperatures, and proximity to roads, which facilitate human access. Fire propagation was further examined using dNBR (differenced Normalized Burn Ratio), dNDVI (differenced Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), and hotspot data from NASA’s FIRMS. The dNBR and dNDVI analysis identified fluctuations in burn severity over the years, with significant damage observed in 2015, 2018, and 2022. However, the results of dNDVI and dNBR do not align due to differences in spectral sensitivity and atmospheric effects. Hotspot density analyzed using Kernel Density Estimation (KDE), highlighted fire-prone zones, particularly in peatland regions. Findings show that human activity, coupled with climatic phenomena such as El Niño, significantly influences fire risk and propagation in South Sumatra, Indonesia. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2025.
Department of Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Negeri Malang, Jl. Semarang 5, Malang, 65145, Indonesia; Department of Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Universitas Negeri Padang, Jl. Prof. Dr. Hamka, Padang, 25111, Indonesia; Department of Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Andalas, Jl. Limau Manis, Padang, 25163, Indonesia
