Mohamad Nizam Nazarudin, Ardo Okilanda, Yovhandra Ockta, Reshandi Nugraha, Regi Dwi Septian
Football is a dynamic sport where offensive and defensive strategies are crucial in determining match outcomes. While offensive metrics such as goals, assists, and shots on target are extensively analysed, defensive metrics have been less explored, particularly in regional tournaments such as the ASEAN Mitsubishi Electric Cup. This study examines the effectiveness of defensive strategies by analysing key defensive metrics—tackles, interceptions, clearances, goalkeeper saves, and blocks and their correlation with match results. A quantitative research design was employed, using official match reports and football analytics databases to assess defensive performance among winning, drawing, and losing teams. Statistical methods included descriptive analysis, ANOVA, correlation analysis, and regression modelling to determine the significance of defensive metrics in predicting match success. The ANOVA results indicated that clearances showed a statistically significant difference across match outcomes (F(2,N) = 4.47, p = 0.018), while goalkeeper saves approached significance (p = 0.062). Correlation analysis revealed strong negative correlations between match outcomes and goalkeeper saves (-0.97), clearances (-0.96), and blocks (-0.98), indicating that frequent last-resort defensive actions were associated with losing teams. Conversely, a moderate positive correlation was found between tackling success rate (0.47) and match success. The regression model demonstrated a high explanatory power (R² = 0.989), reinforcing the importance of defensive performance in shaping match outcomes. Future research should integrate tracking technologies and contextual match variables to refine the understanding of defensive effectiveness in competitive football. This study contributes to football analytics and performance optimisation, providing actionable insights for coaches, analysts, and teams seeking to strengthen their defensive strategies. © JPES.
Faculty of Education, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Selangor, Bangi, Malaysia; Universitas Negeri Padang, Jl.prof Dr. Hamka Air Tawar Barat, Sumatera Barat, Kota Padang, Indonesia; Universitas Teuku Umar, Jalan Alue Peunyareng, Ujong Tanoh Darat, Kecamatan Meureubo, Meulaboh., Aceh, Indonesia; Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia, Jl. Setiabudhi No 229 Bandung Kodepos, Bandung, Indonesia
