Iswandi Umar, Eggy Arya Giofandi
The ecological and hydrological regions in the Anai River basin have undergone significant transformations over the past few decades. This study investigates land use and forest area control models in the Anai River basin, West Sumatra Province, Indonesia. Remote sensing data from 2000 to 2022 were used to compile the LULC data, employing CA-Markov Chain approaches to project LULC into 2030. The CA model’s validity and reliability were confirmed using Kappa accuracy, achieving high agreement levels (Kstandard = 88.3%, Kno = 89.3%, Klocation = 91.2%, and KlocationStrata = 90.2%), ensuring the integrity of LULC predictions. Additionally, the development of forest area control policies involved the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), engaging 20 stakeholders from various institutions through focus group discussions. Findings reveal significant shifts from natural vegetation to cultivated areas, notably forest loss (− 40.287 km2) and an increase in built-up areas (75.317 km2), highlighting escalating human pressures. The proposed control model emphasizes sustainable land management practices, including consistent law enforcement, clear regulatory frameworks, conservation efforts, and greening initiatives. The model also explores alternative economic opportunities for local communities, promotes social forestry, fosters stakeholder collaboration, and strengthens traditional institutions. These policy innovations, derived from stakeholder inputs and the AHP analysis, are strategically designed to balance ecological preservation with socio-economic development. The proposed strategies include promoting agroforestry practices, reforesting degraded lands, and implementing payment for ecosystem services (PES) schemes. This study underscores the importance of integrated policymaking and proactive conservation strategies to maintain ecological balance in the Anai River basin. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2025.
Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, Universitas Negeri Padang, West Sumatra, Padang City, 25132, Indonesia; Graduate Program of Regional Planning Science, Faculty of Agriculture, IPB University, West Java, Bogor Regency, 16680, Indonesia
